Clarence Thomas (l) and Antonin Scalia are ultra-conservative judges Obama, no doubt, would love to replace on the U.S. Supreme Court. Scalia was appointed by President Reagan, Thomas by the first President Bush.

OK, let's admit it.

We're all thrilled that President Obama will get to make an appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court. For a Democrat, however, replacing David Souter is like re-marrying your ex-wife; where's the fun in that?

Souter was appointed by the first President Bush but generally sided with the court's liberal wing. So, unless Obama mistakenly names a closet conservative, his first appointment to the bench isn't likely to move the court in one direction or the other.

What Obama really needs is a chance to replace one of the four conservative justices, especially the ultra-conservative Clarence Thomas or Antonin Scalia.

Assuming Obama gets re-elected in 2012, what are his chances of actually getting to replace a conservative judge?

Just for fun, I did some research and handicapped the odds.

Clarence Thomas: Born in 1948, Thomas will be 61 in June. He'd be 68 at the end of Obama's second term, hardly an old man. Many African Americans had hoped that the nation's second black Supreme Court justice would moderate at some point in his career. Fat chance, especially after an embarrassing confirmation hearing and 17 years of being vilified by liberals and blacks. It's equally unlikely that Obama will ever get to nominate a Thomas replacement. I put the chances at 25 percent.

Antonin Scalia: Born March 11, 1936, Scalia would be just shy of his 81st birthday when Obama leaves office in 2017. Appointed by President Reagan in 1986, Scalia is a true conservative (when it suits his ideology). No way he's letting a liberal Democrat name his replacement. But who knows if he can hold on for another eight years? I give Obama a 45 percent chance of replacing Scalia.

John Roberts: Appointed by the last President Bush as chief justice less than four years ago, Roberts would be a young 62 when Obama leaves office. Odds that Obama will name his replacement: 10 percent.

Samuel Alito: Also appointed by Bush, Alito took the bench in 2006 at age 55. He'd be 67 at the end of a second Obama term. I give Obama only a 15 percent chance of naming his successor.

Interesting factoid: According to the Supreme Court Web site, only three justices have died while still on the bench - Edward White in 1910,  Harlan Stone in 1914 and William Rehnquist in 2005. Beside each of their names is a red asterisk -- "elevated."

Glenn Burkins is editor/publisher of Qcitymetro.com.

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